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New Poll Reveals JD Vance and Marco Rubio are Tied for 2028 Elections

Articles | July 24, 2026 | by Catholics for Catholics

A new survey shows both candidates on equal terms for a possible presidential race.

By Catholics for Catholics

They are neck and neck.

A new Emerson College Polling Center survey indicates that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are almost tied when it comes to approval rating between Republican primary voters. Both are seen by some as possible presidential contenders in 2028.

The numbers allegedly open the door for a tough, primary fight for the 2028 presidential nomination, according to Newsmax.

The poll also revealed that Democrats have gained a significant advantage on the 2026 generic congressional ballot, bringing novel questions about the GOP’s political outlook heading into the midterm elections.

Conducted on July 19-20, the national survey of 1,100 likely voters revealed Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 42%.

The 11-point gap is up dramatically from a 6-point lead Democrats held in January.

Spencer Kimball, Emerson’s Executive Director said the Democratic Party advantage is fueled mostly by women voters, who back the Democrat candidate by a 27-point margin, 56% to 39%, while men are more evenly divided.

The survey shows that within the Republican presidential field there is an increasingly competitive contest.

According to the survey, Vance received 39% of support among Republican primary voters, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed closely at 38%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each received 5%, while 9% remained undecided.

The results indicate that there is no overwhelming front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination.

But Vance’s decline has been dramatic, falling from 52% support in February to 39% now.

Meanwhile, Rubio has had a significant increase, jumping from 20% to 38% over the same period — resulting in a virtual tie with Vance.

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