More than 57.5 million ballots have been cast early or by mail. Democrats are voting like it was a Presidential race, but Republicans may come back.
By Catholics for Catholics
In this key midterm election, the Democrats are winning, but don’t count the Republicans out just yet, experts say.
According to a story by the Daily Wire, Republicans are losing to Democrats in the early voting numbers in several pivotal battleground states as voters head to the polls Tuesday, but election experts caution that those figures alone cannot foretell the result.
On Sunday, Decision Desk HQ analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote that though Democrats are so far outpacing their early voting numbers in 2024, the figures are not yet certain for either side.
“[A]bsentee and early voting data is only part of the overall electoral puzzle,” Skelley wrote. “On Election Day proper, many millions more voters will cast their ballots, and a vote counts the same regardless of when it’s cast.”
The Daily Wire story points out that more than 57.5 million ballots have been cast early or by mail. According to On Point Politics, registered Democrats make up for about 40% of early ballots in states reporting party registration, compared with 33% for Republicans and 27% for unaffiliated or other voters.
Registration identifies the voters’ party affiliation, not which candidates they supported.
According to Skelley, in five key midterm states, the early-voting registration sides have tilted toward Democrats, according to Skelley’s Sunday write-up. Florida has shifted 8 points toward Democrats (R+11 to R+3), North Carolina roughly 13 points (R+1 to D+13), Maine 10 points (D+14 to D+24), Iowa roughly 13 points (R+0.2 to D+13), and Kansas 17 points (R+18 to R+1).
“Republicans need to catch up,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) said, warning that Democrats are turning out at presidential-year levels.
Skelley also indicates that, as striking as these numbers appear on the surface, a stronger Democrat showing in early voting could leave a more Republican electorate to cast ballots on Election Day.
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